ASHUM · CALIBRATION
Reliability
Predicted confidence vs realized four-week-forward hit-rate against the DFMGI benchmark. Each band shows how often a call in that confidence range actually landed. The live series is the track record; the backtested series is context only.
0 ratings resolved · 457 pending (each resolves 20 trading days after publication) · first curve reading at 20 resolutions in a band
Live
liveaccruing — 20 resolutions to first reading
No buckets yet — the curve fills in as resolutions land.
Backtested proxy
backtested-proxy / not live-LLMBrier 0.324 · 6886 resolutions
- 0.6–0.745% n=2636
- 0.7–0.842% n=1654
- 0.8–0.944% n=2592
- 0.9–1.0n=4 · below sample floor—
The backtested series is a price-only proxy rule replayed point-in-time over historical DFM sessions — it is not a live-LLM track record, carries no claimed edge, and a 10-signal factor test on DFM found price-only signals carry no information at this horizon. That is why the live series leads this page. Research and information only; not investment advice.